共和黨的逃離者
2021年1月佐治亞州的參議員補選情況對共和黨有很大的負麵意義，原因不外乎兩個，一是基層的特朗普支持者袖手旁觀，刻意讓當權派候選人出局，寧可輸給民主黨也不把票投給當權派；二是佐治亞這個傳統深紅州已經開始轉變為藍州。無論是哪種可能，這對於共和黨的當權派來說都不是好消息。從長遠來看，更大的壞消息是比佐治亞州更大的深紅州得克薩斯州也在逐步變藍，2020年大選兩黨在得克薩斯州的得票率已經相當接近。而近些年民主黨在南部最大的選舉策略就是讓得克薩斯州變藍，而且他們的確在朝著這個目標穩步前進。這使得共和黨的總體發展相當不樂觀，會讓共和黨的內部團結成為最大的難題。大量的當權派議員可能會選擇往民主黨靠攏，逐漸脫離由特朗普主義主導的共和黨右翼勢力。這將深刻地影響美國未來政治版圖的改變。
特朗普對共和黨的衝擊力無疑是相當大的，早在2016年初他加入共和黨競選隊伍時，美國輿論界就預言他將改變共和黨。特朗普在四年總統任期內與當權派的關係從對抗走向了斷裂，這讓美國政治的大轉折若隱若現。但是特朗普主義與共和黨當權派的首鼠兩端並不是單向的因果關係，而是互為因果關係。特朗普能夠在黨內初選一路過關斬將，就是因為他的競選主張呼應了絕大多數對美國政治“受夠了”的基層群體。這個群體包括失落的底層白人工人階層，也包括非裔、拉丁裔和亞裔中的很多選民。相比優績主義精英思想，他們更討厭全球化、多元化和當權派的政治正確原則。他們的確深刻改變了共和黨的政治生態，不斷擠壓當權派政客的生存空間。
一個標誌性的變化是參議院的共和黨領袖麥康內爾對特朗普兩次彈劾案的態度變化。麥康內爾代表共和黨當權派力量，第一次彈劾案時他在參議院發表了一個很長、很強有力的講話，表達了對民主黨人的憤怒，並公開表示是眾議院在濫用權力。(34)他的那次講話很有水平，理論水平很高，演講水平也是一流。但是第二次彈劾時，他的態度突然發生了很大變化，他在彈劾案表決前公開表示他在考慮要不要讚成彈劾特朗普，在彈劾後他也發表了一個公開講話，對特朗普進行了譴責。(35)他解釋投下反對票的原因是參議院無法對一個普通美國公民進行彈劾，但是特朗普應負各種責任，包括法律上可訴的刑事責任和民事責任等。這是一個重大分野，因為他是共和黨在美國最高政治殿堂—參議院的領袖。這個位置的取得不比總統容易多少。有時候，這個位置的人物才是真正決定美國命運的人物。麥康奈爾是老謀深算的資深政客，他在態度發生急劇轉變前一定是經過深思熟慮的，他認為這是他與特朗普分割的最佳時機，所以他讓妻子趙曉蘭成為國會山事件後辭去特朗普政府部長職務的第一人。離開特朗普主義的麥康奈爾隻能將自己的政治命運與中間選民進行捆綁。
這是共和黨內部張力幾乎達到最大的時刻。第二次彈劾結束後，特朗普立即發表了嚴厲的聲明，以前所未有的力度譴責了麥康奈爾，公開與這位最大的共和黨當權派領袖決裂。根本原因在於麥康奈爾表示自己之所以沒有投讚成票，是因為國會沒有權力彈劾一個已經離任的總統，並不是因為特朗普無罪，而且主張可以循刑事罪和民事訴訟的路子檢控前總統特朗普。在特朗普看來，這和民主黨的訴求其實已經基本一致了，這在根本上是他不能忍受的。(36)在特朗普的第二次彈劾案中，共和黨內部的瓦解程度並不小。參議員羅姆尼已經第二次投下彈劾特朗普的讚成票，眾議員切尼成為彈劾特朗普的重要推手，麥卡錫也不願意對切尼的投票行為進行譴責。這幾位議員並不是打算立刻退休的政客，而是剛剛開始準備在華盛頓大展拳腳，他們與特朗普為敵之後馬上會麵臨來年的國會中期選舉，不僅他們自己要保住議員的位置，還要帶領屬於同一陣營的黨內同人也取得足夠多的議席，才能繼續保持在國會的影響力。
特朗普想把共和黨往特朗普主義的右翼方向引導，他甚至已經在尋找可以在中期選舉中擊敗這些遠離特朗普主義的當權派議員的黨內候選人，一方麵他需要說服共和黨的選民，另一方麵他需要說服共和黨的金主。(37)共和黨內的熱門政治人物已經展開了激烈的內部路線鬥爭。與切尼等發動對特朗普的彈劾不同，部分新生代國會議員如格林、蓋茨等在國會山事件之後反而更加衷心擁戴特朗普主義，雙方形成了鮮明對比，都想把共和黨的選民拉向不同的方向。共和黨當權派明白他們無法馴服特朗普及其擁護者，因為特朗普擁有組建新黨的“政治核按鈕”。1月6日衝擊國會山事件發生後特朗普的支持度依然沒有消退，大家反而在隨後舉行的具有標誌性意義的保守政黨聯盟大會上看到，共和黨大量中生代、新生代政治人物紛紛跑到特朗普的海湖莊園向他靠攏，這讓共和黨當權派感到絕望，他們已經看不到與極右翼保守派之間有什麽調和的餘地，留在特朗普身邊反而有隨時被拋棄的可能，隻能選擇離開。從這個角度來看，不得不說前眾議院議長瑞恩當時的退休決定還是挺有遠見的。(38)
美國是典型的實行兩黨製的國家，第三大黨在“贏者通吃”的選舉模式下沒有太大的生存空間，對於特朗普來講，另組新黨肯定是下下策。特朗普在卸任後與共和黨高層見麵時也不斷強調會幫助共和黨贏下2022年的中期選舉，但是他肯定在等待中期選舉的結果是否符合他的方向，未必會完全放棄組建新黨的選項，除非他推舉的候選人能夠排擠掉黨內曾經激烈反對他的政客。即使他不做出如此巨大的決定，他也已經徹底改變了共和黨，大大改變了美國的政治版圖。共和黨內很多當權派人物已經被逼得隻能向民主黨激進路線靠攏。極右派已經不願意與當權派以及像羅姆尼這樣的名義上的共和黨人站在同一陣營了。事實上，成為特朗普的戰略盟友隻會讓這些資深共和黨政客的選票空間越來越小，他們早已在為自己鋪路了。隻不過如果共和黨內這樣的遊離政客越來越多，就會加速共和黨的瓦解。
羅姆尼是一個非常值得研究的樣本，他是大富豪，屬於共和黨政客中金融資產階級的代表人物、2012年共和黨總統候選人，屬於桑德爾教授筆下的優績主義的典型代言人。他雖然心胸狹窄，但是為人精明，經曆2016年和2020年兩次大選，他很清楚他所奉為圭臬的滴漏理論和優績主義在共和黨的工人階層選民中已經日落西山，美國政治版圖出現了自20世紀60年代民權運動以來最大的兩黨意識形態基礎輪替，他所代表的金融資產階級基礎已經很大程度上轉移到民主黨的麾下。於是他主動尋求向自由主義的方向靠攏，以爭取擴大選民基礎，所以他對特朗普非常決絕，兩次彈劾都投下讚成票。2020年發生轟轟烈烈的BLM運動時，他高調上街參與遊行示威，為的就是要爭取民主黨和共和黨兩黨當權盤麵的選票。要知道，2012年5月大選前他在佛羅裏達的一個閉門集資會議上的一段私下講話被人偷錄下來，他說美國有47%的人吃政府的飯，他根本不會考慮這部分人，因為這部分人隻會投票給奧巴馬。(39)這段錄音被偷錄的雜誌社上傳到互聯網社交平台之後，對他的選情造成了不可挽回的損失。(40)然而，他現在卻主動跳進這個他原本不屑的47%人群中了。他的叛逃是**裸的，說明他已經看到了共和黨的分裂無法避免。2019年他加入民主黨人的隊伍，簽署了一個法案，該法案加重了對富人的征稅，而讓低收入者可以無條件獲得現金資助。這與7年前參加總統大選的他判若兩人。(41)如果在猶他州沒能出現強勁的民主黨對手，他的參議員寶座就是穩穩當當的。雖然從政治道德上這種變節行為有點不光彩，但是對於他這樣的億萬富豪來說，保住權力比什麽都重要。2021年1月初，羅姆尼在鹽湖城機場候機廳被一位女士當場質問為何不支持總統，之後在飛機上又被同機的特朗普支持者齊聲嗆成“叛徒”。(42)
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